March Madness is finally here! College football is by far my favorite sport, but NCAA basketball has the best system for crowning a national champion. Several teams have legitimate gripes about not making the tourney.
- Mississippi State (took #1 seed Kentucky to overtime the same day the bracket was announced)
- Virginia Tech (10-6 record was good for 4th in the ACC)
- Illinois (finished a game ahead of Minnesota who was blown out 61-90 in the Big 10 tournament, yet made the NCAA tournament)
Even with some obvious flaws, though, this tournament balances all teams that deserve a chance to play without making the regular season not matter. There is some talk about expanding the tournament from 65 to 96 teams, but as it stands this tournament is the best system in sports. (There are 65 teams instead of 64 because of a play in game that was added to accommodate the winner of the Mountain West Conference without stealing an at large bid). It is very difficult to give everyone a chance without taking away the importance of every regular season game. With the parity in college basketball, the seeding system in place where every conference champion gets their shot to play on national television. Teams like Gonzaga are proof that, given a chance, some of the small schools can make the most out of the opportunity. Being a consistent player in the NCAA tournament gives those teams a recruiting edge, because that’s something that even powerhouses Kentucky and North Carolina can’t guarantee.
I would hate to see the tournament expand any more, as it would really lessen the importance of the season, and the first round. It would help include the Mississippi State’s, VT’s, and Illini of the world, but all it would really accomplish is giving some of the more deserving teams an unnecessary risk for injury. For football, the BCS is constantly criticized for not allowing certain teams any opportunity at the national championship, even if they go undefeated (in some cases, even in a major BCS conference). In basketball, though, if you don’t have a chance to compete, it’s no one’s fault but your own. And hey, there’s always the NIT!
So the bracket is out, and it’s time to make your picks. Here are some tips to help you win your pool against your friends or co-workers. After the play in game (that you won’t have to pick), there are 4 regions containing 16 teams each giving us four 1-16 seeds. Here are some historical figures to help decide which seeds to pick.
- No 16 seed has ever beaten a #1
- Only four times has a 15 seed beaten a #2
- 14 seeds have achieved the upset 15% of the time since tournament expansion
- 13 seeds have upset #4 21% of the time
- At least one #12 has beaten a five most of the time. (Last year three of the 12’s advanced)
- If you pick an upset in the first round, it usually pays off to take them to the Sweet 16
- 9 seeds win more than 50% of the time versus 8 seeds
- Most of the time, especially recently, a #1 seed wins the tournament.
Moral of the story, you have to pick upsets, but don’t ignore history. Picking North Texas to the Final 4 because you’re from Denton will kill your bracket. The chances of you picking a perfect bracket would be 1 in 9 million trillion (seriously) if these games really were all tossups. Paying attention to history will help cut down that improbability a little bit.















